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[PREMIUM] Market waits for MPS and OCR this week

This week the Reserve Bank will deliver the May Monetary Policy Statement, and the Official Cash Rate decision is on a knife edge, says Westpac.
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[PREMIUM FOR SUBSCRIBERS] How far is the global dragon out of puff?

Warren Head – Spring Festival for 20% of the world’s population is an appropriate time to reflect on the pulse-rate of China, which has been making some headlines in recent days. ...

Eyes swivelling to the Argentine G20.

Warren Head World leaders will meet over the weekend at the G20 Summit in Argentina with hopes this could be used as a platform for a US-China trade deal. ...

No change seen in OCR for months

Westpac now expect that the Reserve Bank will keep the Official Cash Rate on hold until November 2020 – a longer pause than we had previously factored in. That’s despite stronger outlooks for both GDP growth and inflation. At the same time, we’re seeing increased downside risk for dairy prices. ...
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[PREMIUM] Global milk supply slowing

While combined milk supply growth across the world’s ‘Big 7’ dairy exporters slowed during quarter three, a bumper start to the New Zealand milk production season has seen soft demand for Oceania-origin dairy products in recent months, according to Rabobank’s latest Dairy Quarterly report, with the bank now forecasting a lower New Zealand milk price of NZD6.65/kgMS for 2018/19. ...

Tariffs fly to and fro in trade war

Warren Head US-China trade tensions dominated the headlines this week as new tariffs flew back and fro across the Pacific. ...

BNZ warns of 'pseudo-stagflation' risk

The Bank of New Zealand’s head of research delivered an ominous message to business today, saying the New Zealand threatens to move into a pseudo-stagflationary environment. ...

‘Unhappy picture’ of business outlook

Headline business confidence and firms’ views of their own activity continued to fall in July, reaching their lowest levels since May 2008 and May 2009 respectively. ...

[PREMIUM] MARKETWEEK: Why GDP does matter

Warren Head The big question this week is whether the global equity market rally is peaking or not? Here and there stocks are riding high and even the biggest businesses show it’s hard to keep up the growth momentum. If there’s more it will be led by a resurgent US economy. ...
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[PREMIUM] MARKETWEEK: Much muttering about trade war but markets move on

By Warren Head There’s been a notion running for a few days that the equity markets are starting to worry about the risks represented by a Trump-induced trade war. ...
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